Hybrid Random Forest Regression and Ant Colony Optimization for Delivery Route Optimization

Journal: Journal of Information Systems and Informatics

Publication: 2025-12-10 · Vol. 7 No. 4 · pp. 3483–3501

DOI: 10.63158/journalisi.v7i4.1376

Abstract

The transportation of goods in Indonesian cities is increasingly challenged by urbanization, congestion, diverse road characteristics, and environmental factors, reducing the effectiveness of conventional distance-based routing. This study enhances delivery route optimization by integrating travel-time prediction using Random Forest Regression (RFR) with a metaheuristic routing process using Ant Colony Optimization (ACO). Using OpenStreetMap (OSM) data for Palembang, experiments were conducted on five simulated customer locations in Zone 1. Road attributes such as segment length, road type, and estimated speed were used to train the RFR model, whose predicted travel times served as dynamic costs in the ACO heuristic. The RFR model achieved high predictive accuracy (R² = 0.98; MSE = 8.81), and the ACO-based optimization produced an efficient route of 29.58 km with a total travel time of 148 minutes. However, the experiment is limited to a single zone, a small number of customers, and the removal of real traffic variables—where all actual speed variations, congestion levels, and time-dependent traffic conditions were simplified or omitted, causing the model to rely solely on static road attributes. Future work will incorporate real-time traffic data, expand testing to multiple zones, and use larger datasets to improve scalability and operational applicability.